El Nino is a phenonmenon where the prevailing east to west winds across the southern Pacific diminish or sometimes reverse, causing warm waters to build up off the coast of Peru. Scientist are just starting to understand the global implications of El Nino such as increased droughts in Australia and frequent storms and flooding in California. We are often asked if we could use El Nino data to forecast the severity of an ice season.
IIP uses two indicators of iceberg season severity, the number of icebergs reported south of 48 degrees north, and iceberg season duration. We compared these indicators with the El Nino data, as measured by NASA's Climate Research Unit's Southern Oscillation Index (S.O.I.) and found some correlation. The "Season Duration" graph below, shows that there is a high degree of correlation between season duration and S.O.I. Peaks in S.O.I. represents "El Nino years". When looking at other years, such as 1966, it is apparent that there are other factors involved in shaping IIP's season, such as North Atlantic seasonal sea ice distribution, Gulf Stream behavior, and global warming.
At this time, it is unclear how El Nino will affect North Atlantic iceberg distribution. However ongoing studies provide us with invaluable information which could be applied to future predictions. If we could use El Nino data to predict the duration and intensity of an iceberg season, we could provide the mariner with a forecasting tool not previously available. It would also help us plan for more effective use of our resources.
The authors of this data wish to thank Phil D. Jones, C.F. Ropelewski, R.J. Allan and the Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, U.K., for the production of this data set, and the Distributed Active Archive Center (Code 902.2) at the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, for putting these data in their present format and distributing them. These distribution activities were sponsored by NASA’s Mission to Planet Earth program.